A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
